Ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine nemiphumela yayo yemakethe

Isitatimende sephephandaba: Isimo esibi kakhulu - ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine - siyafezeka. Siyakugxeka lokhu kuhlasela futhi kuleli phepha sizama ukuhlaziya imiphumela yezomnotho kanye nomthelela ezimakethe zezimali.

Intengo kawoyela idlule u-$100 umphongolo ngamunye

I-Russia ingumdlali obalulekile emakethe yezimpahla zamandla. Kubaluleke kakhulu eYurophu. Isimo sikawoyela siyinkomba enhle yokushuba kwamanje. Intengo idlule izinga le-$ 100 emgqonyeni ngamunye okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngo-2014. I-Russia ithumela ngaphandle mayelana nemiphongolo kawoyela eyizigidi ezingu-5 ngosuku. Lokhu cishe ku-5% wesidingo somhlaba wonke. I-European Union ingenisa cishe ingxenye yalo mqulu. Uma iNtshonalanga inquma ukunqamula iRussia ohlelweni lokukhokha lomhlaba wonke lwe-SWIFT, ukuthunyelwa kweRussia ku-EU kungase kumiswe. Endabeni yalesi simo, silindele ukunyuka kwentengo kawoyela ngama-dollar angu-20-30 ngomphongolo. Ngokombono wethu, i-premium engozini yempi ngentengo yamanje yamafutha ifinyelela ku-$ 15-20 emgqonyeni ngamunye.

IYurophu ingumthengisi oyinhloko kawoyela waseRussia. Umthombo: Bloomberg, XTB Research

I-rally ngegolide ne-palladium

Ukungqubuzana kuyisisekelo esiyinhloko sokukhula kwentengo yegolide ezimakethe zezimali. Akukhona okokuqala ukuthi igolide libonise indima yalo njengendawo ephephile ngezikhathi zombango wezwe. Intengo yeounce yegolide ikhuphuke ngo-3% namuhla futhi isondela ku-$1, cishe nje u-$970 ngaphansi kwephezulu.

I-Russia ingumkhiqizi omkhulu we-palladium - insimbi ebalulekile yomkhakha wezimoto. Umthombo: Bloomberg, XTB Research

I-Russia ingumkhiqizi obalulekile we-palladium. Kuyinsimbi ebalulekile ekukhiqizeni iziguquli ze-catalytic zomkhakha wezimoto. Izintengo zePalladium zehle cishe ngo-8% namuhla.

Ukwesaba kusho ukudayiswa ezimakethe

Izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke zithatha impumelelo enkulu kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2020. Ukungaqiniseki manje kuyimbangela ebaluleke kakhulu yezimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke njengoba abatshalizimali bengazi ukuthi yini ezolandela. Ukulungiswa kwekusasa le-Nasdaq-100 kujule namuhla, kudlule ama-20%. Ngakho amasheya obuchwepheshe azithola esemakethe yamabhere. Kodwa-ke, ingxenye enkulu yalokhu kwehla yabangelwa ukulindela ukusheshisa ekuqinisweni kwenqubomgomo yezimali ye-Fed. Ikusasa le-DAX yaseJalimane lehle cishe ngo-15% kusukela maphakathi noJanuwari futhi lihweba eduze nokuphakama kwangaphambi kobhubhane.

I-DE30 ihweba eduze kwamazinga aphezulu angaphambi kobhubhane. Umthombo: xStation5

Ibhizinisi e-Ukraine lisengozini

Akufanele kusimangaze ukuthi izinkampani zaseRussia nezinkampani ezivezwe kanzima emakethe yaseRussia zithathe igalelo elikhulu. Inkomba eyinhloko yaseRussia i-RTS yehle ngaphezu kuka-60% kusukela kwephezulu efinyelelwe ngo-Okthoba 2021. Ihwebe kafushane ngaphansi kwezinga eliphansi lika-2020 namuhla! I-Polymetal International yinkampani okufanele inakwe, amasheya ehle ngaphezu kuka-30% eLondon Stock Exchange njengoba imakethe yesaba ukuthi unswinyo luzohlasela inkampani yaseBritish-Russian. KwaRenault nabo bayathinteka njengoba iRussia iyimakethe yesibili ngobukhulu kule nkampani. Amabhange anokuchayeka kanzima eRussia - i-UniCredit ne-Societe Generale - nawo ehle kakhulu.

I-inflation ephakeme nakakhulu

Ngokombono wezomnotho, isimo sisobala - ukungqubuzana kwezempi kuyoba umthombo womfutho omusha wokwehla kwamandla emali. Amanani cishe azo zonke izimpahla ayenyuka, ikakhulukazi ezamandla. Kodwa-ke, endabeni yezimakethe zempahla, okuningi kuzoncika ekutheni ukungqubuzana kuthinta kanjani ukuhlelwa kwempahla. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi amaketanga okuphakela amakhasimende emhlabeni wonke awakakalulami kulo bhubhane. Manje kuvela esinye isici esibi. Ngokwenkomba ye-New York Fed, amaketanga okunikezwayo emhlabeni jikelele yiwona anobunzima kakhulu emlandweni.

I-Bluff yamabhange amakhulu

Ukwethuka ngemva komthelela we-Covid-19 kwaba okwesikhashana, ngenxa yokwesekwa okukhulu kwamabhange amakhulu. Nokho, isenzo esinjalo manje asinakwenzeka. Ngenxa yokuthi ukungqubuzana kungokwenyuka kwamanani emali futhi kunomthelela omkhulu ekuhlinzekweni nasekuphatheni impahla kunesidingo, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuba yinkinga enkulu kakhulu yamabhange amakhulu. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuqiniswa ngokushesha kwenqubomgomo yezimali kuzoqinisa kuphela ukuhlukumezeka kwezimakethe. Ngokubona kwethu, amabhange amakhulu azoqhubeka nokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo emenyezelwe. Ingozi yokukhuphuka kwezinga le-50bp yi-Fed ngo-March yehlile, kodwa ukunyuka kwe-25bp kubheka isivumelwano esenziwe.

Yini esingayilindela ngokulandelayo?

Umbuzo obalulekile wezimakethe zomhlaba manje uthi: Ngabe ukungqubuzana kuzokhula kanjani ngokuqhubekayo? Impendulo yalo mbuzo izoba ukhiye wokuthulisa izimakethe. Uma isiphenduliwe, ukubalwa komthelela wokungqubuzana nezijeziso kuzodlula ukuqagela. Ngokulandelayo, kuzocaca ukuthi umnotho womhlaba uzodinga ukujwayelana nalolu hlelo olusha.