Isikhethi se-apula Ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari, iRussian Federation yaqala impi ngokuhlasela i-Ukraine. Nakuba umbuso waseRussia ungakakwazi ukugubha impumelelo yawo, kunalokho, wakwazi ukuhlanganisa cishe umhlaba wonke, owalahla ngokungananazi ukuhlasela kwamanje. Ngokunjalo, amazwe aseNtshonalanga aqhamuke nochungechunge lwezijeziso ezisebenzayo zokulimaza umnotho wawo. Kodwa isimo siyoqhubeka kanjani sithuthuka? Inhloko ehlonishwayo yokutshalwa kwezimali yeqembu laseFrance i-Amundi, uVincent Mortier, uphawule ngalokhu, ngokusho ukuthi yonke into izoba nesiphetho sayo. Waziveza ngokuqondile lezi zibikezelo.
Imiphumela phakathi kwamaviki noma izinyanga
Indlela eyamukelekayo yokuphuma enkingeni kaPutin (uyakhumbula iCuba ngo-1962?) - Izingxoxo eziyimpumelelo phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRussia kanye/noma ukumiswa konswinyo
Imiphumela yezomnotho
- Amabhange amaphakathi azobuyela ekukhulumeni kwawo okujwayelekile, ukukhula kuzohamba kancane eYurophu futhi kunengozi yokuwohloka komnotho (uma kubhekwa izinkinga zamanje namaphutha kunqubomgomo ye-ECB yokukhuphuka kwezinga kanye ne-tapering)
- Abathumeli bempahla abavela emazweni ase-US nase-LATAM naseShayina kuzoba izigaba zempahla ezikhethwayo
Izimakethe zezimali
- Izitokwe zokuvikela nezokuvikela ku-inthanethi ziyakhula
- Amasheya ezinkampani ze-IT nawo angazuza kule nkinga
- Izintengo zamandla zihlala ziphezulu kuze kube kukhona ukuhlukahluka kwesakhiwo kwabahlinzeki (indaba yeminyaka embalwa)
I-Russia izowina: ukuphela kombuso kaZelensky, uhulumeni omusha
Imiphumela yezomnotho
- I-Ukraine izovula umnyango wokuthi iRussia iqhubeke idlulele eYurophu, ikakhulukazi emazweni aseBaltic nasePoland
- Impi yombango eRussia/Ukraine ngokulahlekelwa okukhulu kokuphila
- I-Russia Ivivinya I-NATO Ngokuhlaselwa Kwe-Cyber noma Ukuziphindiselela, I-NATO Izophendula, I-Russia Yeqa Umugqa Obomvu
- I-China izofuna ukukhombisa isikhundla sayo ohlelweni olusha lomhlaba
-> Okunye ukungqubuzana kungase kuphakame
Izimakethe zezimali
- Amanani aphezulu amandla
- Ukuntengantenga kwezimakethe (izimakethe zizosabela eqinisweni lokuthi iRussia ingase yeqe umugqa obomvu olandelayo) - ukuncipha kweholo njengengozi yangempela (iYurophu)
- Ukuthola ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphephile, ukuthengisa izimpahla eziwuketshezi (ukulingana nemali mboleko)
- Ukuncipha kwe-euro
Impi yombango, ukuvinjezelwa kweKiev, inani eliphakeme lokufa (elifana neChechnya)
Imiphumela yezomnotho
- Ukubulawa kwabantu eKiev nakwamanye amadolobha; inani eliphezulu lezisulu akwamukeleki ezakhamuzini zaseRussia
- Lokhu kungase kusho ukubhekana ngqo neNtshonalanga (kodwa hhayi ukukhuphuka kwezikhali zenuzi)
Izimakethe zezimali
- I-stock market capitulation kanye nokudayisa ukwethuka
I-Russia izolahlekelwa: Umbuso kaPutin usongelwa ukuphikiswa okunamandla
- ukucindezelwa kobushiqela okukhulayo kwasekhaya, kuzoba nezinxushunxushu zomphakathi noma impi yombango eRussia
Imiphumela yezomnotho
- I-Russia izongena ekuwohlokeni komnotho kanye nenhlekelele yezimali ngokuchitheka okulinganiselwe komhlaba wonke uma iRussia entsha iba "isathelayithi yaseNtshonalanga"
Izimakethe zezimali
- Ukudayiswa ezimakethe, izwe elibizwa ngokuthi yizicucu, kungaqopha izimpahla zaseMelika nase-Asia, mhlawumbe ngisho naseYurophu, uma kungekho ukwehla komnotho okujulile.
Ukwehla Kwezikhali Zenuzi Kusekelwe I-China: Izindlela Zempi Ezisheshayo
- I-EU/US isebenzisa unswinyo olusha, ukukhombisa amandla ngendlela ephucuzekile. I-China izosekela amazwe aseNtshonalanga enqabeni udlame.
- I-Russia izomisa izenzo zezempi. Umnotho umile, uhlelo lwezepolitiki luyohlala lukhona.
Imiphumela yezomnotho
- Ukubambezeleka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla (uwoyela, igesi, i-nickel, i-aluminium, i-palladium, i-titanium, i-iron ore) kuzodala ukuphazamiseka kwebhizinisi nokubambezeleka.
- Umfutho wokukhula komnotho womhlaba
- I-Russia izongena enkingeni yezezimali ehlelekile kanye nokuwohloka komnotho (ukujula kuncike ubude bempi)
- Imizamo yezezimali neyezimali izoba nesibindi. I-ECB ihlehla ekujwayelekeni
- Inkinga yababaleki eYurophu
- Imfundiso entsha yezempi yaseYurophu
Izimakethe zezimali
- Ingcindezi emakethe yamandla isekhona
- Izimakethe zezimali emanzini angaziwa (sibonga usongo lwesistimu ezimakethe zaseRussia)
- Balekela Kukhwalithi (Izindawo Eziphephile)
- Ukunqanyulwa kwamanye amabhange aseRussia ku-SWIFT kuzosekela ukusetshenziswa kwezinye iziteshi, njenge-cryptocurrencies (i-Etherum nezinye)
Umphumela wokungqubuzana uzothatha isikhathi eside
Imisebenzi yezempi imile, i-Ukraine iyaphika, ukuhlasela kweRussia kudonsa izinyanga.
Ukulwa isikhathi eside kodwa ukungqubuzana okunamandla aphansi
Imiphumela yezomnotho
- Izisulu zezakhamuzi nezempi
- Ukuphazamiseka kwamaketanga okunikezwayo emhlabeni jikelele
- Ukukhula kokunganeliseki komphakathi eRussia
- Ukwandisa unswinyo ngokumelene neRussia
- Ukwandiswa kwe-NATO, ngokungena okungenzeka kwamazwe aseNordic, ngeke kuholele ekungqubuzaneni kwezempi okuqondile.
- I-Stagflation eYurophu
- I-ECB empeleni izolahlekelwa ukuzimela kwayo. Izophoqeleka ukuthi icabange kabusha ukuthenga kwayo kwempahla (ukuze isekele izindleko zokuvikela kanye nokuguqulwa kwamandla) ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile.
Izimakethe zezimali
Ukulwa ne-stagflation yomhlaba wonke: Amabhange amakhulu abuyela phambili ngokuhamba okunempikiswano ekugcineni kwejika lesivuno kanye nezimo zezimali zomhlaba.
- Ukulwa ne-stagflation yomhlaba wonke: Amabhange amaphakathi abuyela ekuhambeni okuyimpikiswano ekugcineni kwejika lesivuno kanye nezimo zezimali zomhlaba
- Izilinganiso zangempela zizohlala endaweni engalungile: ngemva kokulungiswa, abatshalizimali bazogxila kumasheya, izikweletu futhi babheke imithombo yokwazisa kwangempela Ezimakethe Ezikhulayo (EM)
- Sesha izimpahla eziwuketshezi eziphephile (ukheshi, izinsimbi eziyigugu, njll.)
Ukungqubuzana kwezempi okude, okunamandla kakhulu: masilindele okubi kakhulu
- Ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi okungenzeka
- Usongo lwesistimu yomhlaba wonke, ukusimama komhlaba, ukuwa kwezimakethe zezimali okuzohlala kuguquguquka kakhulu
Isikhathi sempi singathethelela ukucindezelwa okunamandla kwezezimali. Izilinganiso zenzalo zangempela zizohlala zijulile ekujuleni kwe-negative.
Ingxoxo yesihloko
Ingxoxo ayivulwanga lesi sihloko.
